At Long Last - Top Expert Says US Will Feel Bite of Imposing Sanctions on Russian Economy
What will 2018 bring us in terms of international politics and what should Russia expect? The experts of the Valdai Discussion Club shared their estimates. US sanctions, relations with Europe, the Korean conflict, the developing cooperation with China, and the ways Germany might surprise the US experts and politicians.
Daria Kozlova with the most interesting prognoses.
The least obscure sphere is the US sanction policy against Russia whose direction was stated in the Public Law 115-44 adopted by Congress in Summer 2017. The exact measures will get approved later, after seven new reports that the US Executive Branch will introduce to Congress in 2018. The most anticipated one will be ready in February. It's called: "Report on Oligarchs and Parastatal Entities of the Russian Federation." All ties of the Russian ruling elite will be assessed. The law states it clearly: that this report will be the means for adding new names to the sanction lists.
Another report with the sanction list of the US Ministry of Finance will also be released in February. It will target the finance and energy sectors of Russia as well as railroads, metallurgy, and manufacturing enterprises.
Fedor Lukyanov, Valdai Discussion Club: "It's a new reality. It's not just about the nature of our relations with the US but the fact that economic leverage is becoming a crucial pressure method. If it overlaps with an acute political competition, like the one we have with the US, then we have no reason to expect the regime to be eased or dismantled".
The US sanctions against Russia are becoming a constant. But our economic relations with Europe might change for the better in 2018. The PL 115-44 that we've already mentioned received a negative reaction in the EU from both separate states and the European Commission. The Valdai Club experts suppose that Europe is ready to depart from the sanction regime.
Rein Müllerson, President of the Institute of International Law: "Europe will lose much more opposing Russia and win much more cooperating with Moscow than the US would. Unlike the US-Russian confrontation, we have no clash of the opposite geopolitical interests. Besides, it's Russia and not the US that is interested in the EU as a relatively independent and powerful player at the global arena".
In 2018, the strategic cooperation between Russia and China is supposed to get enhanced as well. We're waiting for further results from the conjunction of the Eurasian Economic Union with the Chinese initiative "One Belt One Road".
Andrey Bystritsky, Valdai Discussion Club: "Our governments are ready to reapproach. The Chinese authorities have conducted a series of modernization reforms. Let's hope that 2018 will be the year of international measures to lift all those barriers and to increase the level of business communication between the Eurasian and Chinese business".
The Korean situation is not supposed to cardinally change. Both the North giving up its nuclear program and radical measures by Pyongyang or Washington are highly unlikely. Most bet on Russia becoming a mediator in resolving the conflict and the reduction of tension between the US and North Korea after their unofficial negotiations.
Fedor Lukyanov: "I think it's just a large-scale bluff especially from the American party. The US isn't ready to risk waging war against North Korea Primarily due to the fact that this risk is hard to calculate. It's unclear how it might turn out. Unfortunately for the US, Pyongyang is the victor here from the perspective of their objectives".
The new trend of 2018 will be multipolarity: formation of new power centers, which will force the so-called traditional superpowers to seek compromises.
Rein Müllerson, President, Institute of International Law: "The US will have to recognize that they won't be able to dominate the world and even their allies. It's necessary to give some room for maneuver and reassess the global picture as it was done in Europe after the Napoleonic wars. We need multipolarity and a balance of powers".
The experts' estimates contain a term "known-unknown" which defines a possible but highly unlikely scenario that no-one is usually prepared for. One of such surprises was Trump's victory in the US elections or Britain's decision to leave the EU.
The similar scenarios for 2018 include the defeat of the Democrats in the US the resignation of Merkel's government a social boom in Ukraine and Saudi Arabia and a large-scale military conflict in Africa which will lead to an unprecedented wave of migration to Europe.